Examining Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Investment Behavior in Pakistan
This study addresses the limitations of the previous studies and contributes to the literature through developing theoretical knowledge and examining the empirical framework on the consequences of the oil price uncertainty for the investment in financial and real assets. The study uses structural VAR to identify the oil supply, aggregate demand and oil specific demand shocks and to estimates, the impact of these identified shocks on the performance of stock market in Pakistan is analyzed. The results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis confirm the significant role of oil supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks on the stock market whereas, oil specific demand shocks exert little influence on the changes in the stock market prices. Findings suggest that the impact of oil prices shocks is not the same; it differs and depends upon the underlying oil price shock.
This study further investigates using System GMM model how the corporate investment decisions in Pakistans developing and in a regulated oil price environment respond to international oil price uncertainty. The findings of this study reveal that international oil price uncertainty significantly affects the corporate investment decisions and also finds evidence in favour of compound options theory application in Pakistan. However, contrary to the existing studies, our findings imply that although the impacts of oil prices uncertainty in normal course are positive, corporate investment significantly decreases when the uncertainty increases at the exponential rate. These findings are in contrast with those found in US by (Henrique & Sadorsky, 2011). This difference is due to different economic conditions and structures of Pakistani and US economy.
In the decomposed oil price shocks and corporate investment phase, investigates the impacts of uncertainty of identified underlying oil price shocks on the corporate investment decisions by using GMM. Results show the positive effects of world oil supply uncertainty, whereas world oil demand and oil specific demand measures have significant negative effects on the corporate investment. These findings suggest that the impact of oil prices shocks on the corporate investment decisions is also not the same; it differs and depends upon the underlying oil price shock. Further findings from the analysis confirm the presence of both waiting options and the growth options in line with the empirical findings by (Henrique & Sadorsky, 2011). Finally finding from the oil intensity analysis suggest that in Pakistan volatility of different underlying oil price shocks affect significantly the corporate investment decisions in Pakistan for both the oil intensive and less oil intensive industries and there is not much difference between them. Results regarding the factor of size suggest that small firms are better in coping with the world oil supply side shock of oil price uncertainty, whereas the large size firms are better able to handle with the oil specific demand side shock of oil prices. Therefore effects of oil price shocks on investment is not the same for the large and small size firms and differ depending upon the underlying shock of oil price uncertainty also.
Findings imply that, the policy-making authorities, investors and managers must take care of the source of oil shocks, the difference, nature and intensity of effects according to their country environment before making the policies and decision about the investment plans.